Inspiration from the epidemic “Black Swan”: There is no shortage of good stocks in the market to easily defeat bulls and bears
How does market sentiment affect trading during unusual times?
Top domestic investors, come to Sina Finance University, Tan Wenqing, founder and principal of Enoch Education, will take you to read “Financial Psychology”, welcome to listen for free!
Author | Edit by Nie Fanghong | Pandan Rat’s stock market was hit by a new type of coronary pneumonia “black swan” in the beginning of the year. The Shanghai Stock Index opened the first day after the holiday and set the record for the lowest opening since 1997. It eventually fell to over 3,000 stocks and fellNearly eight percent closed.
What is even more sighing is that after the investors who did not sell on the limit board that day, opened the meat the next day and fled, many stocks stopped falling and rebounded, and even the daily limit closed. Some of them also hit recent highs on the third day.
The skyrocketing slump led to slaps on the left and right, which may be the signs of beings of small and medium investors under this “black swan” raid.
As the saying goes, it ‘s not easy to know if “Open Door Black” is the annual “golden pit” this Monday, but after this “black swan” baptism, investors should gradually come across something like this should be moreBe rational.
The first is not to panic when things go wrong.
Fear of unknown events often makes people lose their sense and judgment, herd mentality, and herd effect will strengthen misjudgment.
The root cause of many investors’ failure to buy and sell in the face of the “black swan” in the stock market is that they think too much about the consequences of distortion and hope to quickly avoid them to achieve psychological balance.
In fact, the “Black Swan” incident was originally an unpredictable accident.
The aim is that the relevant information is scattered and lagging, and it is difficult to attract attention.
At the same time, even if you feel that there may be a problem, it is very difficult to make a correct judgment in time and cause hesitation.
When it is truly judgeable, basically this is the end of the story.
A similar new coronary pneumonia epidemic emerged in December last year, but did not attract enough attention. It was not until the time when the Spring Festival contagion began to erupt that the situation was serious. Prophets and investors knew that it might have an impact on the economyWhen it has a huge impact on the capital market, it is the last trading day before the holiday.
At this time, with the exception of a few investors who sold in time, most people believed that they should hold shares for the holidays.
During the holiday break, the situation was clear and the problem was serious. Overseas A50 stock index futures plummeted, and the US stock market fell. This further strengthened the pessimistic expectations of the A-share market after the holiday.
As a result, the A-share market opened up unexpectedly, and those who drove the crash were those investors who rushed to change their limits.
If everyone can take a rational view of the “black swan” risks and not follow the trend blindly, perhaps the decline will not be so great and the losses will not be so much.
Of course, it is necessary to analyze the incident.
The “black swan” incident is found in some industries. It can happen in this era, and the country cannot avoid it, especially the capital market.
When investors encounter this situation, they must first analyze carefully to see whether the impact of the event is direct or indirect, whether it is long-term or short-term, whether the fundamental change or temporary impact, whether it is controllable or uncontrollable, whether it is all or part of the impact, and so on.
Although the epidemic situation has an impact on the economy, especially the tertiary industry, the magnitude and duration of the impact and the progress and effectiveness of disease prevention and control.
We should believe that there is the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, the people of the whole country helping each other, group prevention and control, 南京桑拿网 scientific evidence from medical staff, etc., where they can make accurate policies, and the inflection point for epidemic prevention and control will soon come.
At the same time, we should also see that outbreaks may be possible for companies such as medicines, vaccines, and testing reagents.
The second depends on where the market is.
If it weren’t for this epidemic, who would be pessimistic that the Shanghai Composite Index would fall below 2700 points this year?
Looking back at the reports of major securities firms, institutional analysts, and online surveys at the end of the year and end of the year, I think that this year’s index change range is very few below 3,000 points. Due to the influence of the “black swan”, the index suddenly fell to more than 2,600 points.Are you talking about potential or risk?
Third, look at foreign trends.
When the stock market 四川耍耍网 plummeted on Monday, there was a net inflow of 18.2 billion in capital.
The last is to deal with strategies.
Uncertainty in the capital market is the norm, and the “black swan” is constant, and the only way is to plan ahead.
The first is to establish a value investment philosophy.
No investor can control the short-term changes in the market, but they can choose to invest in high-quality stocks with confidence, obtain long-term returns, and use high-probability thinking to respond to small-probability events.
Looking back at the historical trends of Vanke, Moutai, Guizhou, China Merchants Bank, Gree Electric, Yili, Huayu Automobile, Yunnan Baiyao, Conch Cement and other stocks, it can be seen that the A-share market is not lacking in fear of index fluctuations and easily defeating bulls and bears.share.
The second is to weigh the impact of stocks among “Black Swan” opponents and take correct decisions in a timely manner.
The “black swan” in the capital market has macro, micro, industry, and individual stocks. The first thing to be dealt with is the “black swan”. If the fundamentals clearly change fundamentally, they can come out.Get out of it without hesitation.
For other unexpected risks, as long as the fundamentals of the individual stocks in the opponent have no fundamental impact, wait and see for the time being, and do not follow the blind impulse.
The third is to see the opportunity in crisis, using “Black Swan” to adjust positions and exchange shares.Some people have money in their hands and want to buy stocks, and some people want to invest in good stocks. There has been no suitable price opportunity. The “Black Swan” event is the best opportunity. The trend of some stocks in the first three days of this week illustrates this.
For example, stocks such as BYD, HKUST Xunfei, Northern Huachuang, Ganfeng Lithium and other stocks that opened on Monday fell. They all had strong opening performance after the opening. Many investors thought it was the bookmaker’s conscience who found that he had the opportunity to escape.These stocks have basically reached the recent highs. Investors who bravely copied the golden pit can be said to have gained a lot in the short term.
■ (This has been published in Red Weekly on February 8)